Grey Relational Analysis of the Correlation between Various Crop Yields and Annual Precipitation in Henan Province Over the Last Decade

Rongkang Li

doi:10.6919/ICJE.202602_12(2).0004

Authors

Rongkang Li

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.6919/ICJE.202602_12(2).0004

Keywords:

Henan Province; Precipitation; Crop Yield; Grey Relational Analysis; Cropping Structure Optimization; Food Security.

Abstract

As a major agricultural province in China, the stable production of grain, oilseeds, and cash crops in Henan is critical to food security. In recent years, influenced by climate change, interannual precipitation fluctuations in the province have intensified, and the frequency of extreme drought and flood events has increased, exerting complex impacts on crop yields. Existing research predominantly focuses on individual crops, lacking comprehensive correlation analyses. Based on annual precipitation and major crop yield data from 2015 to 2024 in Henan Province, this study utilizes the Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) method to systematically quantify the correlation intensity between precipitation and 12 types of crops across three categories: grain, oilseed, and cash crops. Through data normalization, trend visualization, and relational grade calculation, the sensitivity differences of various crops to precipitation fluctuations were identified. This research provides theoretical and practical references for optimizing cropping structures, enhancing agricultural resilience, and ensuring food security.

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