Construction of Flowering Period Prediction Model based on Mathematical Modeling

Baotong Zhang; Nuan Feng; Siru Liu; Peng Gao; Wenling Yang

doi:10.6919/ICJE.202511_11(11).0020

Authors

Baotong Zhang
Nuan Feng
Siru Liu
Peng Gao
Wenling Yang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.6919/ICJE.202511_11(11).0020

Keywords:

Holt-Winters; Seasonal Model; Probability of Rain; Flowering Prediction.

Abstract

In the context of the rainy weather during the Qingming Festival which may affect the outing for flower viewing, this article conducts an in-depth analysis and modeling on the topic of flower viewing during the Qingming Festival. By using historical data and information about flowers, a comprehensive optimization model is established to predict the weather and plan the flower viewing routes. We predict whether it will rain in a city by establishing a Holt-Winters seasonal model based on historical weather data (such as atmospheric temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, etc.) to predict whether it will rain during the Qingming Festival. We also establish a forecast model for the opening time and flowering period of flowers such as apricot blossoms and rape flowers in 2026, using the data of the initial flowering time of each year to build a prediction model for flowering prediction, thereby predicting the opening time and flowering period of flowers in 2026. Based on the weather forecast for the Qingming Festival in 2026 and the predicted flowering period, a self-guided tour plan for flower viewing during the Qingming Festival is drafted. By taking into account various factors such as the flowering time and period of flowers, the distance between cities, transportation costs, and weather conditions, an objective optimization model is established to plan the best travel route. This predicts the best route for flower viewing during the Qingming Festival in 2026 and provides a measure for the government to extend the "flower viewing economy" industrial chain, allowing the "flower viewing economy" to have an "extra-long flowering period". In light of the characteristics of the flowering period of different flowers, measures to extend the flowering period are provided, and corresponding measures and suggestions are given to the government and local flower viewing parks to extend the "flower viewing economy" industrial chain.

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