Research on Energy Consumption Optimization and Carbon Emission Prediction of Traditional Residential Buildings in Hehuang, Qinghai Province

Abstract

Improving the energy efficiency of traditional residential buildings is a crucial pathway toward achieving carbon neutrality in China’s building sector. Traditional dwellings in the Hehuang region of Qinghai suffer from poor thermal performance and excessive energy consumption, making optimization an urgent necessity. This study investigates such dwellings through field surveys, energy simulations using DeST-H, orthogonal experimental design, and multiple regression modeling to analyze the influence of key building parameters on energy use. Range analysis from orthogonal tests identified the optimal retrofit strategy as: applying interior insulation with 70 mm rock wool boards and 12 mm gypsum boards to ordinary exterior walls; 80 mm rock wool boards and 12 mm gypsum boards to roofs; and 50 mm rock wool boards and 12 mm gypsum boards to Zhuangkuo-style exterior walls; adopting a south-facing window-to-wall ratio of 0.5; orienting the building 15° west of due south; and using double glazing with a thermal transmittance of 2.1 W/(m²·K). This configuration achieved a 76.6% reduction in both energy consumption and carbon emissions, demonstrating substantial energy-saving and decarbonization potential. A multiple regression–based carbon emission prediction model was developed and validated for the Hehuang traditional dwellings, offering quantitative guidelines and strategic references for optimizing energy performance in similar climatic and cultural contexts. The findings provide a robust decision-making basis for parameter optimization in practical energy retrofits.